Pilot Projects | Project Supplements

Principal Investigators: Ronald Lee and Shripad Tuljapurkar

SIMSOC (http://simsoc.demog.berkeley.edu) is a web-based program that generates stochastic forecasts of the long-term finances of the Social Security system under specified policy options regarding normal retirement age, payroll tax increases, and investment of Trust Fund in equities. Improvements and updates in response to requests from the Office of Research at Social Security, made possible by CEDA funding have made it a relevant and accessible tool for people working on stochastic fiscal projections, including researchers, policy makers, and the Social Security Administration's Office of the Actuary, as well as other areas of Federal government. Lee, Anderson, Edwards, and Boe from CEDA recently presented the model behind the SIMSOC program at a meeting on stochastic forecasts of the Social Security system, sponsored by the Social Security Administration's Office of Policy. This year, the Trustees Report included the results of a stochastic forecast by the Actuaries, and discussion of the Tuljapurkar-Lee forecasting model was posted on the Actuaries' website along with some of the results.

The program has proven useful well beyond the scope of the pilot, and CEDA staff will continue to maintain and develop this project.